By: Daniele Rinaldo, Rami Alazzeh, Jean-Louis Arcand, Corey Scher, Jamon Van Den Hoek
PNAS Nexus, Volume 5, Issue 5, May 2026, pgag124, https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag124
Published: 26 May 2026
Abstract
We map and estimate the economic impact of the Israel–Hamas war on the Gaza Strip that began after the 2023 October 7 attacks by Palestinian militant groups. We measure the extent of likely damage to Gaza’s built environment derived from satellite radar time series data and estimate the impact caused by the conflict on Gazan economic activity via night-time luminosity measurements. After the first year of war, we find that 82% of each square kilometer of the Gaza Strip had been damaged at least once and that 67.9% of its built-up area has been destroyed. We estimate an average loss of night-time luminosity due to the conflict of 68.5%, and find that the 2023 November ceasefire coincided with a small but significant increase in luminosity. We translate our night-time luminosity losses into economic indicators: our results show that more than three quarters of Gaza’s economy has been destroyed since the start of the conflict, and we estimate a loss of 2.6 billion USD of household expenditures caused by the damage. Our work establishes a novel framework for estimating the economic impact caused by conflicts with low latency, detailed spatial resolution and which is agnostic with respect to field data sourced from political actors.
The following is available at: https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/5/5/pgag124/8691349
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